TVIX, daily
UVXY, daily
Summary
*first, an update on the VIX, which gained 34.2% across the week.
Most notably, the VIX is making a play for the weekly 200 MA. This week was a marginal miss.. but there now looks to be a very real chance of an August weekly VIX close in the 18s...or higher
If that is achieved.. it will be the first real sign that a broader trend change is underway in the broader equity market.
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As for TVIX and UVXY, it was indeed the first significant net weekly gains since early April. As ever, both will be highly susceptible to a few days of 'cool down' in the VIX.
What now for the VIX?
I'm seeking a back test of sp'1955/65 next week.. which should equate to VIX cooling to the 14/13s.
From there...so long as SP' does not break 1970.... VIX long will be a valid trade in August.
First major upside target would be VIX 22 - which would surpass the 2013 high of the 21.90s.
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Personally, I have no intention to trade long VIX in the current equity down cycle. I would only consider picking up some VIX calls in September. Certainly though, the past two days have changed things, and I will strongly consider shorting the equity indexes on the next 2-3 day bounce.
