GDX - looking highly vulnerable

With the precious metals having possibly seen a multi-week up wave complete, the mining stocks are looking equally vulnerable to a new down cycle. The miner ETF of GDX settled higher by 1.9% @ $22.15. The Nov' low of $16.34 remains in danger of failing by early spring.


GDX, daily

Summary

*The miners showed some surprising latter day strength, despite the metals holding rather significant declines.

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The following scenario relates to a similar bearish outlook for the precious metals. The count is a 'best guess'... with the overall cycle relating to the ECM from Armstrong

GDX, weekly, count, with fibs

Suffice to add, by late summer.. if Gold $1000, or even the 900s... GDX could be half of current levels.

*no doubt, many of the gold bugs would be outraged at such a suggestion of renewed weakness, but then.. those same people have been buying GDX since spring 2011... when it was somewhat higher in the........... $60s