Tuesday 7 November 2017

DIS - climbing ahead of earnings

Whilst the main market leaned somewhat weak, there was notable strength in Disney (DIS), which settled +1.0% at $101.61. Earnings are due Thurs' Nov'9th in AH, and that will clearly have broader implications for the remainder of the year.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

There have been a trio of stories surrounding Disney in the past week...

First, Disney threatening various cinema chains that if they don't show 'The Last Jedi' for a certain amount of weeks, they won't get access to the film.

Second, Disney banning LA Times film critics - although Disney have (today) backed down on that issue, after a huge mainstream backlash.

Third, the reveal that Disney was in preliminary talks to buy part of 21st century fox.
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Earnings: I expect them to come in 'fine'. The current FPE is in the 15s, with a yield of around 1.5%. On any basis... not expensive.
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Technically...

The Sept'7th low of $96.20 now marks a washout low. Recent price action >100 gives confidence that the Sept' low is a mid term low.

First soft target is the 200dma in the 105s. M/t target is the Aug'2015 high of $118.62. In theory, if main market is strong across 2018, broad upside to 140/50 is viable. That might seem a long way up, but the same was said of AAPL when it was trading in the $90s in mid 2016.
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Soon to arrive...



Bullish Star Destroyers.