Friday, 2 March 2018

GDX - a second week of cooling

The gold miner ETF of GDX settled the week on a moderately weak note, -0.4% at $21.49, resulting in a second consecutive net weekly decline of -2.2%. Near term outlook is offering renewed upside. Things turn decisive if Gold >$1400, which would offer hyper upside in GDX to $50 by mid 2019.


GDX weekly



GDX daily



Summary

Not a great day or week for the gold miners. Indeed, the sector ETF of GDX isn't far from the recent hyper spike low of $20.83. For now... its all to be treated as 'broad chop since early 2017'.

Arguably, the bold will be buying with a stop around core support. whilst the cautious will simply wait to chase when Gold >$1400s and/or GDX >26s.

To be clear, yours truly is seeking an eventual upward break in Gold (and Silver). If correct, the related miners could be expected to naturally follow.
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Notable miners...

Newmont Mining (NEM), monthly


Newmont is performing far better than the sector, having seen a major bullish breakout in January. For now... its moderately choppy, as Gold is broadly churning in the $1300s.
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Barrick Gold (ABX), monthly


Barrick Gold broke a new multi-month low of $11.07 this week. Technically, there isn't any support until psy' $10.00. Cyclically, we're on the moderately low side, but there is currently ZERO sign of a floor/turn.
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To be clear, I like both Newmont and Barrick Gold, but the more cautious will simply wait to get involved when Gold breaks above the very important $1400 threshold.