Monday 31 July 2023

Choppy miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July gain of +$1.30 (4.3%) to $31.41, helped by a positive main market, and upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly


An intra month high of $32.92, but cooling back to settle at $31.41. I would note the 10MA at $29.89, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and remains marginally positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net July gain of +$0.26 (0.6%) to $42.92, a distinctly weak performance relative to the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.96, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net July gain of +$0.36 (2.1%) to $17.29. Momentum is flat-lining, on the fractionally positive side. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.

First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net July gain of +$1.03 (18.2%) to $6.68. A eighth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market breaks lower.

Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market breaks lower.

As of end July 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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