GDX - miners looking weak

Whilst the main indexes closed a touch higher, the miners were again showing weakness today, which is now into its sixth week - since those QE3 spike highs. The long term outlook is most certainly bearish, assuming the global economy continues to weaken.


GDX, daily

GDX, monthly

Summary

What is paramount for GDX is that it holds at least over 47 in the days and weeks ahead.

Any break <47, and the next level/target would be the summer low of 39/40.
--

My primary target of $40 was indeed hit this past summer, and I do expect my secondary target of 35/30 to be hit within the next 3-9 months.

GDX @ $30 would surely be a great buying level sometime in 2013.

AAPL - major failure to hold the 200 day MA

Apple (AAPL) closed 3% lower @ $576, and is continuing its decline from the Sept'21st high of $705. With the Friday close under the 200day MA, the bull maniacs have something to think about over this weekend.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

With the first close below the big 200day MA, bears should seek confirmation early next week with at least a few more closes in the 570s or lower. We could drop for a few more days, and even back-test the 200 day MA on any bounce into mid-November.


The bigger target

The monthly chart includes a somewhat recklessly highlighted 'doomer' outlook. Primary target would indeed be the big $500 level - where the 20MA is lurking near.

I can't imagine AAPL trading <500 within the next few months. However, with global economic weakness, I'd certainly seek further downside in the latter half of 2013.

The doomer scenario outlined assumes a great deal, but its just something to keep in mind.

As I highlighted recently, what will be important for the bears is to eventually put in a lower monthly high...just as we did in mid 2008. We all know what came next.

AAPL remains a highly profitable company, but there are continued rumblings of trouble out there.

TVIX, UVXY - the nightmare resumes

After a very promising eight days, the 2x leveraged (bullish) VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY were again feeling the pain today. With declines of 10-15%, the closing action bodes for further pain this Friday.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

With the VIX closing lower by around 10%, both the 2x VIX instruments closed significantly lower. Again, it remains the case that those playing these casino-esque derivatives, should be using at least some level of stop.

The daily candle looks bad, and it ruins what was a very reasonable bull flag.
--

*it remains surprising TVIX has not yet seen a 1 for 20 reverse split to kick the price back.upward.