Friday, 2 November 2012

AAPL - major failure to hold the 200 day MA

Apple (AAPL) closed 3% lower @ $576, and is continuing its decline from the Sept'21st high of $705. With the Friday close under the 200day MA, the bull maniacs have something to think about over this weekend.

AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly


With the first close below the big 200day MA, bears should seek confirmation early next week with at least a few more closes in the 570s or lower. We could drop for a few more days, and even back-test the 200 day MA on any bounce into mid-November.

The bigger target

The monthly chart includes a somewhat recklessly highlighted 'doomer' outlook. Primary target would indeed be the big $500 level - where the 20MA is lurking near.

I can't imagine AAPL trading <500 within the next few months. However, with global economic weakness, I'd certainly seek further downside in the latter half of 2013.

The doomer scenario outlined assumes a great deal, but its just something to keep in mind.

As I highlighted recently, what will be important for the bears is to eventually put in a lower monthly high...just as we did in mid 2008. We all know what came next.

AAPL remains a highly profitable company, but there are continued rumblings of trouble out there.