AAPL - a fifth monthly decline

Apple (AAPL) closed the day -0.7% @ $441. Across the month of February, AAPL lost 2.5%, and this was the fifth consecutive monthly decline for AAPL - something we've not seen in over twenty years! Near term trend looks weak, with a potential bearish H/S formation, suggesting sub 400s this spring.


AAPL, daily

AAPL, monthly

Summary

A fifth month lower for AAPL, and it really is historic. I don't have access to data prior to 1993, but I can definitively say, AAPL has not seen five months of declines in the past twenty years. That is pretty incredible, and even more so, when you consider the broader equity market which is still trending higher.

With a cash pile of around $150 per share, AAPL remains a bizarre company.

Theoretically, it seems impossible to consider the stock much lower, but the price action is still suggesting a break under $400 seems likely.


Under-valued?

Forward PE is in the 8s. Even if profits dropped 50%, you'd still only be looking at a PE of 12, which is under the current market average of 15 (or 20)..depending on how you calculate it.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

Baring a collapse in its loyal consumer following, AAPL is significantly undervalued relative to the main market, but as noted..near term price action says further declines coming.

F - about to confirm the bull flag

Ford (F) closed significantly higher - in tandem with the main indexes, +3.5% @ $12.77. Ford is now very close to breaking what is a large bull flag, that stretches from mid January


Ford, daily

Summary

First target is a daily close over the 50 day @ $13.00, which itself is just above the upper channel line.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is turning upward, and should be positive cycle in about 3-4 days.
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Key support remains @ $11.75

PWE - someone was buying

Penn West Energy (PWE) closed +0.5% @ $9.71, a moderate gain. The interesting aspect of today was the trading volume. A huge 6 million shares were traded, and this was the biggest up vol' day since Sept'2010. Near term price trend though, remains lower.


PWE, daily

Summary

The recent break of what seemed to be key support @ $10.00 was something of a surprise. Today was the fourth daily close under the $10 level, and its starting to be a real problem from a price/chart perspective.

*Arguably, if PWE can climb back over $10, a $10 stop-level would be a very reasonable strategy.
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PWE remains marginally profitable, but its the very large dividend - currently 11% of the stock price that is attracting some serious interest from those seeking a good yield.

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

We remain in an oil based economy, and so long as Oil prices don't fall below $90..or certainly $80...the industry as a whole should do okay across 2013.