Net 2023 gains for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.20 (0.6%) to $31.01, which made for a net 2023 gain of +$2.81 (10.0%).

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $30.04, which was settled above. 

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$25.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$1.20 (3.0%) to $41.39. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.10, which was marginally settled above. Net yearly decline of -$3.97 (8.8%). Monthly momentum is ticking upward, and prone to turning positive within Jan/Feb'. Price could be expected to spike, with a break above key price threshold of the $44s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net December gain of +$0.50 (2.8%) to $18.09. A net yearly gain of +$1.32 (7.9%). The December candle leans at least s/t bullish, with momentum having turned positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

A net December gain of +$0.18 (3.0%) to $6.15. I would note the December settlement is back above the 10MA, with monthly momentum due to turn positive in January. A net yearly decline of -$2.16 (26.0%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end 2023... I hold a stock position in NEM
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Highly recommended for those with an interest in gold and the related miners.

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The strong miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November gain of +$3.31 (11.8%) to $31.32, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month low of $27.01, but swinging lower to settle at $31.32. I would note the 10MA at $30.14, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and settled fractionally positive.

The central concern should be any renewed broad/sustained downside in the main market. However, I'd accept that doesn't look due any earlier than mid January.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net November gain of +$3.09 (8.3%) to $37.47. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.16, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, if remaining negative. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net November gain of +$1.70 (10.7%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked upward, turning fractionally positive. Soft target is key price threshold of the $19.20s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net November gain of +$0.83 (16.0%) to $5.97. A twelfth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.
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Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October gain of +$1.10 (4.1%) to $28.01, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month low of $25.62, but swinging lower to settle at $28.01. I would note the 10MA at $30.21, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and remains marginally negative.

The central concern should be that any further downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net October gain of +$0.51 (1.4%) to $37.47, distinctly lagging the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $42.65, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back upward, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then its open air to the $25s... last printed in Oct'2018.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net October gain of +$1.43 (9.8%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked back upward, if remaining fractionally negative. Support $12s, and then the 2018 $8s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net October gain of +$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.15. A eleventh consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15, as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market is broadly lower into 2024.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.
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