Tuesday 31 October 2023

Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October gain of +$1.10 (4.1%) to $28.01, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly



An intra month low of $25.62, but swinging lower to settle at $28.01. I would note the 10MA at $30.21, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and remains marginally negative.

The central concern should be that any further downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net October gain of +$0.51 (1.4%) to $37.47, distinctly lagging the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $42.65, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back upward, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then its open air to the $25s... last printed in Oct'2018.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net October gain of +$1.43 (9.8%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked back upward, if remaining fractionally negative. Support $12s, and then the 2018 $8s.

First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net October gain of +$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.15. A eleventh consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15, as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market is broadly lower into 2024.

Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.

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