Monday 9 April 2012

TVIX - Mon' morning: Special Update

The VIX daily is displaying a black candle....potentially warning a top is already in place (and conversely a floor in the indexes).

TVIX 60min


TVIX is sitting outside its bollinger bands. Sure, that could be a sign of a much higher move, but...generally, its not the best of places to be still holding long, not least if there are no stops on the position. From the MACD cycle perspective, this is likely to be the third tower..and a smaller one, again, suggestive that a new down wave is due (with the main market indexes bouncing back).

Such a multi-day down wave, would almost certainly make new lows for TVIX, due to the decaying nature of it.


TVIX is a broken ETN

We can all agree on that right? So...anyone holding should use any and all opportunities like this to bail out. There are far better ways to play market volatility than TVIX. Just like VXX and UVXY, TVIX is a FAILED ETN, it does not work, and the decay is a real nightmare across any period longer than 3-5 weeks.

Even hyper volatile VIX calls/puts are arguably a better play than the TVIX.

More on those crazy VIX instruments later today I think.