Tuesday, 17 April 2012

GDX - miners...bear flag..again

The miners look primed to make a new break lower.

GDX, daily


On the daily, we have a clear bear flag, only a break back above $51 would seriously suggest there is a new up trend underway.


GDX, monthly






The mid-term out for the miners looks pretty dire. Many of the individual stocks look set to lose somewhere around 10-20% across the next 3-6 months. The weaker miners may lose as much as 30..even 50%.

If the deflationists are correct..and if the US does slip into a recession by Q4 - after it becomes clear the European basket case..really IS one giant basket case, then the main indexes should at least be down to the equivalent of Sp'1150/1200 no later than October.