AMZN, daily
AMZN had a little black warning candle on Thursday, and Friday closed a touch lower. Bears need to see a break below 185, and then 165. Only a break above 215 would make me bullish on AMZN, and even then, the fundamental problem is that the company does not make much money.
AMZN, weekly
The weekly cycle is showing a clear and rather big bear flag. You could count a simple ABC wave structure, and we could be in wave'1 down. First primary target remains 150, 135, and then the hugely psychological $100 level.
Summary
Without question, AMZN is one really important company to watch. With razor thin margins, will it actually post a 'surprise' loss this Thursday? Market is expecting Q1 EPS 7 cents. That is simply beyond razor thin, and I would not be surprised if we see -15/25 cents. Anything worse than that, and the market would start freaking out about the near term outlook.
AMZN has a good long term outlook, but its mid-term profitability looks lousy, and I hold to my overall 'fair value' target of around $100.
