Thursday 24 January 2013

AAPL - still wrapped in hysteria

Despite posting Q4 earnings which were unquestionably 'reasonable', the market is now displeased with the outlook for AAPL this year. AAPL closed the day -$64 @ $449 - a fall of 12.5%. On any basis, this is a huge drop for such a corporate giant.


AAPL, daily



AAPL, monthly


Summary

It has to be said, relative to the main market, AAPL is under valued. The company is still wrapped in hysteria, primarily inspired by the clown finance TV cheer leaders.

The underlying balance sheet remains very good though, not least being debt free with a cash mountain over $130bn or so. 

see Key stats @ Yahoo! finance
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The company is clearly not the same without Jobs at the helm. Yet is has all the money it would need to buy just about anything. There remains a lot of chatter that AAPL might want to bid for the privately held Twitter. Or maybe buy Facebook? Would Zuckerberg sell out @ $50 a share?


A mid-term bounce..before more downside?

The monthly chart outlines a possible bearish outlook across 2013 for AAPL. The key aspect is that a major multi-month bounce is likely at some point - starting from the low $400s. It will only be AFTER the bounce, and with maybe a further 1-3 months of sideways churn, that a more decisive move to the downside (including the major market) might occur.