AAPL, daily
AAPL, monthly
Summary
AAPL sure is taking its time to build a floor. Its been bouncing around in the $500-600 range for the past 8 weeks, and it looks like its coiling up for a major move. Considering the strength in the indexes - which look set for the low sp'1500s in February/March, my guess is that AAPL will eventually break significantly higher.
Certainly there is the possibility of a fast wash-out move into the 475/450 range, but that just seems increasingly unlikely. So long as earnings are in line with what the market is expecting, the stock will very likely see a considerable move higher, probably back into the 600/650 range.
The bigger picture
The monthly chart above is purely speculative, and not to be taken too seriously. However, I wanted to at least highlight the style of the decline in AAPL prior to the stock market collapse of 2008.
We can see a strong three month bounce from March>May, then three months of chop, before the main collapse wave. Especially note how the 20 month MA appears to have held - just as it did in March'2008.
Looking further out, perhaps AAPL will come to floor in the low 400s towards the end of this year?
Undervalued..relative to the main market
Unquestionably, AAPL has one of the strongest consumer brands in the world, and a mountain of cash. The stock itself is still surrounded by a lot of hysteria - not least reinforced by the cheer leaders on finance TV.
Current PE (forward) is a lowly 9, on any basis, AAPL is undervalued compared to a lot of the other junk out there.
see: key stats @ Yahoo! finance
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*AAPL Q4 earnings are at the close of Wed ' Jan'23.
