Thursday 17 January 2013

AMZN - overvalued by 90%

Amazon (AMZN) traded with the main market today, closing 0.6% higher @ $271. Since the mid November lows, AMZN is up over 20%..and shows very little sign it may be close to even a short term top.


AMZN, daily



Summary

Despite profit margins of 0.07%, AMZN just keeps on rising on a multi-month basis.

AMZN - much like FB and AAPL, is still clouded in hysteria, not least from the clown media, who seem completely oblivious that the company doesn't make hardly any money - despite sales/turnover, which will likely be around $50bn in 2012.

Seriously, what kind of business has sales of 50 billion, and can't even maintain a profit margin of 1%!

see key stats @ yahoo! finance

The forward PE - which assumes improving profits across 2013, is still 155, which is simply insane. The trailing PE - is embarrassing in the extreme, now in the 3000s. On any fair value basis, it doesn't deserve to be trading about the current SP PE' - which for simplicity sake we'll call 15. So, if AMZN's forward PE is 155...just divide by 10..and you get a more inline number..which would be $20/25 a share.
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But hey, its AMZN, so..profits no longer matter...right ?

AMZN remains a crazy stock, but is certainly one to watch...not least when its next earnings are posted Tue' Jan'29th.