Wednesday 30 January 2013

ANR, BTU - miners having problems

With the main equity indexes showing what appears to be the start of a retracement, the coal miners saw some extra downward pressure. Both Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) saw very significant declines of 5.5 and 6.4% respectively.


ANR, daily



BTU, daily



Summary

Lets start with ANR, which has one of the most perfect H/S formation I've seen in a very long time. You can see a clear left shoulder in mid December, then the head, with the right shoulder completing just last week. Today's break below the neckline is significant, and the next downside target is the rising support @ $8.30

A break of 8.30..and ANR could easily slip to 7.50 next week.
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Peabody's chart is nowhere near as 'clean' as ANR. There is a bigger sloping H/S formation.. but that never really decisively broke.

First downside target is 22/20, although the latter will be very difficult to hit if the main indexes only retrace down to sp'1460/50. It would appear very unlikely we'll see the July low taken out for many months, if at all this year.
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BTU remains superior to ANR on a balance sheet perspective, but both generally trade kinda closely. Coal remains a very neglected sector, those seeking much higher index levels this year should certainly be looking for the whole energy sector to start breaking significantly higher into the spring and early summer.