Wednesday 31 December 2014

AA, BAC, F - the holy trinity for 2015

With the equity market climbing for the sixth consecutive year, attention is naturally turning to the year ahead. Of the many hundreds of stocks I regularly follow, Alcoa (AA), Bank of America (BAC), and Ford (F) are a very respectable trio to at least... keep an eye on.

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The following three stocks are ones I am seeking to be long across ALL of 2015. As ever, if there is a clear bearish break on the monthly equity cycles, I would drop the 'hyper bullish' outlook, and flip sides. I will likely refer to them collectively as 'the holy trinity'.. not least because the first key 'breakout' threshold for all three is $18.


AA, daily


AA, monthly


Summary

Alcoa has seen some significant price chop since the October low. Again, in December, there was a brief break of the 200dma... but current price structure is offering a bull flag. First upside target is the $18 threshold, which seems viable after next earnings. Once a monthly close of $18... AA should proceed rather swiftly to the bigger $20 threshold.. and continue battling higher - along with the broader market.. across 2015.

I have little concern of sig' downside, unless a break of the Oct' low of $13.69.
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BAC, daily


BAC, monthly


Summary

Bank of America has already come close to making a monthly close of $18. That still seems likely.. whether Jan or Feb', it should make little difference to those already long the stock. The key $20 threshold.. if achieved in spring 2015.. will open up a hyper-bullish target of $30 in late 2015/early 2016. I realise, considering the size of BAC (market cap $188bn)... such a rise would be relatively massive.

If the US fed do begin to raise rates in spring/early summer.. it should awaken the mainstream to getting more invested in the financials. BAC.. along with Wells Fargo (WFC) are prime candidates for strong upside in such a scenario.
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F, daily


F, monthly


Summary

Ford has struggled for almost two full years, but remains close to the key $18 threshold. Once a break above $20.. then the mid 20s.. whether late 2015 or early 2016.

Key support remains the recent low of $13.14, and unless that is taken out, I have little concern that $18... and much higher levels won't be hit in 2015.
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*I will be seeking to pick up and build positions in AA, BAC, and F, across 2015.