GDX, daily
GDX, monthly
Summary
*there was some kooky price action into the close... with a print of $17.72. I'm not sure what to make of it, but the stockcharts data was also reflected via my own trading feed.
GDX, 1min
Miners floored?
If I didn't know anything about what the precious metals were doing, and only saw the GDX chart, I'd actually be strongly considering the miners at these levels.
Yet... instead the miners face a number of problems...
1. strong USD.. hitting 89s today.. set to challenge the 2005 high of 92s.
2. broad market confidence, with low VIX... no 'fear bid' for the precious metals
3. Precious metal prices remain in a broad down trend from 2011
The one thing in the miners favour... the recent collapse in Oil prices. Fuel represents a HUGE cost of production, and with Oil seemingly set to fall into the $50s in early 2015... that will make for a 50% decline.
Since the summer, relative to the subdued metal prices, Oil has declined more.. and thus many miners should be expected to improve in efficiency for Q4 of 2014.. and probably much of 2015.
Holding to the original outlook
As it is, I still hold to a target of $1000/900 for Gold.. along with Silver 12/10. The bulk of that decline has obviously already now occurred, but if my target is correct, mining stocks will remain under pressure.
For now... I continue to watch GDX.. am seeking a key multi-year floor in the precious metals.. along with the miners... in the first half of 2015.
I look forward to stating 'I'm buying.. and staying long.. for some years'.
