TCK, daily
TCK, 5 year
Summary
I've followed TCK for a fair few years, but not that closely lately. I was actually reminded of it today by Mr Knight, over at slope of hope.
What is absolutely clear, when you look a 4-5 yr chart, TCK looks dire in terms of its price formation. It is arguably a giant H/S formation - much like FCX, and many other of the mining stocks, and its on the edge of breaking critical support.
There is simply ZERO support under $24, all the way down to the Nov' 2008 low of $2.46.
Now, I'm certainly not suggesting TCK is going to lose 90% in the next 6-18 months, but it sure wouldn't be the first major miner to go under in the past few years. Remember Patriot Coal (PCX) ? That went from the $24s to effectively zero.
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As a company, TCK is a good dividend payer, has reasonable net margins of 8%, and looks generally 'okay'.
see key stats @ yahoo! finance
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Certainly, I don't like TCK as a short right now. However, when the main equity market rally does finally get stuck this summer, TCK might be a very valid short. Whether its under $20 at that time, that's too difficult to say.
