Thursday, 12 February 2015

TSLA - lousy earnings, grossly mispriced

Whilst the main market saw further gains, Tesla (TSLA) opened sharply lower (intra low $193.28), settling -4.6% @ $202.94. Despite a daily reversal candle, outlook is weak after earnings which were simply lousy. Market is projecting 2015 earnings of (roughly) $2... which offers a 'bargain' PE of just 100.


TSLA, daily


Summary

To be clear, I like the company... the innovation from TSLA is pretty inspiring, but Q4 earnings plain sucked. Net cash outflow was dire, and more funds from existing shareholders look likely to be requested within the next year or two.

In terms of price, TSLA looks grossly over-valued... even if you really admire the green tech, and what will no doubt be further tech development in the years ahead.

On no basis can a PE of 100 be justified. Hell, even 25 - which would be almost 50% above the market average stock valuation, would be questionable.

Fair value... for 2015......... $50.

Of course... Mr Market... will likely push the current price higher. After all, where else is all that QE money going to go?
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*as an aside... just consider... AAPL.. PE 10.... vs. TSLA 100.

There are often times when this market grossly misprices any given company... AAPL and TSLA are indeed polar opposites.