Friday, 13 February 2015

TVIX, UVXY - a second weekly decline

With equities continuing to push higher, the VIX was naturally still cooling. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX/UVXY saw net weekly declines of a very significant -16.7% and -19.2% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued broad equity strength.. with the VIX going sub-teens.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

*first, an update on the VIX, which saw a net weekly decline of -15.0% @ 14.69


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*there is certainly some uncertainty in the near term with the EU meeting next Monday, but it looks likely that Greece will do as their German masters order.

Even if the VIX can briefly spike next Tuesday to the 17s, it won't likely last. The sp'2100s look due, which would lead the VIX to resume the melt lower... and fall to the 12/11s by early March.
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As for TVIX/UVXY, the decay remains as ever a real problem for anyone holding more longer than a week or two.