Tuesday 10 October 2017

DIS - this is not going to go...

Short term price action in Disney (DIS) remains choppy, with the stock settling the day up 1 cent to $99.58. Near term outlook is bearish (along with the main market), to the $97/96s. An eventual bullish breakout seems a given, for a company that owns the cash making franchises of Star Wars and Marvel.


DIS daily



DIS monthly



Summary

Disney stock saw a hyper run from $25.73 in Oct'2011 (when sp'1074), to $118.62 in early Aug'2015... just before the market imploded. Since then, its been broadly choppy, finding support within the 88-84s. The Sept' low of $96.20 is still a little vulnerable, but mid term outlook has to be bullish.

Arguably, price action since summer 2015 to the present could be seen as just a massive consolidation of the hyper ramp from 2011. Cyclically, we're on the low end, and I'd look for an uptick in price action into year end.

Clearly, 'star wars' chatter will help to raise interest in the stock, but its not just star wars of course, there is Marvel, and that is arguably as important, perhaps even more so.

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'This is not going to go... the way you think', Skywalker, L. date unknown.


Seriously, its arguably just a case of whether Star Wars 8 generates 2, 3, or even $4bn in revenue for Disney.

Forward PE 15s, yield 1.6%. Not cheap, but on any basis, its not remotely expensive either.
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To be clear, I am s/t bearish, but m/t bullish, seeking new historic highs (>118.62) in 2018. If you believe in Dow 40k (within 3-5 years), that would equate to $250 or so, and I recognise that can be seen as 'crazy talk'. But then.. so was $100... back in 2011.

yours... hyper bullish star destroyers