Tuesday, 17 October 2017

NFLX - earnings were fine

Netflix (NFLX) earnings for Q3 were unquestionably fine. However, it was a mixed day for the stock, breaking a new historic high of $204.38, but settling -1.6% at $199.48. Near term outlook is bearish, but with higher subscriber numbers, who are set to pay more, the mid term outlook is very bullish indeed.


NFLX daily



NFLX monthly



Summary

*I shall refrain from highlighting a wide array of data, which will have been covered across a thousand other sites.
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Q3 EPS was 29cents - vs 12cents a year ago.

On a forward basis, (round up) to $1.20yr, with a current stock price of $199.48, that gives a F' PE of 166. On any basis, that is ludicrously high.

If you are extremely generous, and assume Netflix could reach 50 cents per quarter within a year - $2.00yr, that gives a F' PE of the 99s. That is still double what Nvidia is priced at, and more than 4x the main market.

To be clear, I like the company, which is creating some of the best original content the industry has ever produced. The current valuation is crazy, but as the US/world economy is growing, the company has better  pricing power, and is now confidently periodically raising prices. How long until the typical monthly fee will be $15 a month? Two years? Three? It certainly won't be more than five.

There is a sideline issue in that Disney will eventually want all of its content - especially the Marvel shows, on its own streaming service. However, this is still a few years away, and for the moment, the market doesn't much care.
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Bullish Stranger Things, just in time for Halloween.