Saturday 31 December 2022

Net 2022 declines for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.09 (3.0%) to $28.66, which made for a net 2022 decline -$2.84 (9.0%).

GDX, monthly



The collective of miners climbed for a fourth consecutive month. The December candle is black, and is suggestive of s/t bullish exhaustion. I would note the 10MA at $28.42, which was marginally settled above. Things only turn decisive with a monthly settlement above $30, which looks difficult considering the outlook for the broader market.

Unless you believe the main market has a key m/t floor from early Oct' 2020, any renewed downside will be a pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree.

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$0.28 (0.6%) to $47.20. The December candle is black, and leans s/t bearish. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $53s, which was settled below for a seventh consecutive month. Net yearly decline of -$12.37 (20.8%). Monthly momentum remains deeply negative, and I'd note the March 2020 spike low of $30.11.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net December gain of +$0.86 (5.3%) to $17.18. A net yearly decline of -$1.13 (6.2%). The December candle is rather spiky from around the monthly 10MA. The problem will likely be further downside in the main market.

First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly



A net December decline of -$0.95 (10.2%) to $8.34. I would note the December settlement is below the 10MA. A net yearly decline of -$2.74 (24.7%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners, with a m/t bearish main market.  

Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end 2022... I hold no miner stocks/options.

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