Friday 29 September 2023

Miners still digging

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net September decline of -$2.35 (8.0%) to $26.91, pressured by a weak equity market, and further downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly


An intra month high of $30.13, but swinging lower to settle at $26.91. I would note the 10MA at $30.27, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and has turned negative.

The central concern should be that any downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net September decline of -$2.06 (5.3%) to $36.95, fairing somewhat better than the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $43.48, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back lower, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then its open air to the $25s... last printed in Oct'2018.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly


A net September decline of -$1.66 (10.2%) to $14.55. Momentum is increasingly negative. Support $12s, and then the 2018 $8s.

First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly


A net August decline of -$1.00 (16.3%) to $5.13. A tenth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market is broadly weak into 2024.

Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.

As of end September 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

For more of the same...

For details >