AMZN, daily
Summary
First, check the AMZN key stats, via yahoo
Forward P/E - assuming earnings (and the economy) hold together, is still over 100. That is INSANE, and even a dynamic and profitable company would be hard to justify 50. So, first.....the stock price should be cut in half..all else being unchanged.
My fair value for AMZN remains around $100...the minimum downside target. However, if AMZN fails to rationalise itself, improve efficiency, then fair value is considerably lower.
Worse case, if the economy does slip into recession, fair value is arguably somewhere between 60 and 20.
As ever, its all in the timing
The problem remains for those wanting to short - just as was the case with NLFX, CMG, GMCR, timing. How many more months will the market tolerate the current delusional rating?
It could easily be into 2013, and if the broad market holds together, AMZN could be over $300 by then.
At some point, reality will hit this stock, and the clown networks will be '...no one saw this coming'.
The only issue is indeed...when.
