Thursday 27 December 2012

TVIX, UVXY - near term trend remains upward

With an afternoon political comment pushing the indexes back higher, the VIX flipped back to negative, and both the 2x leveraged bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY lost almost all of their significant earlier gains.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily


Many TVIX/UVXY holders can understandably feel dismayed at the late day fall back.

However, if we are to see VIX in the 30s..even 40s, then crazy moves in the VIX/Indexes - just as we saw this afternoon, are to be entirely expected.

The near term trend for both TVIX and UVXY most definitely remains to the upside.

The ultimate bearish aspect of today was of course the VIX breaking the key 20 threshold

VIX, weekly

The 30s and 40s...are indeed a long way up, but we're way overdue a few weeks of 'spiky' upside. Best guess remains the VIX maxing out somewhere between 35-45 in mid January.