TVIX, daily
UVXY, daily
Summary
The sp' hit 1438 today, very close to the border where my original bearish outlook would have to get thrown into the trash.
The close @ 1428 was welcome, and it was especially pleasing to see the VIX closing in the green, by 2%, although it remains in the lowly 15/16 zone.
Did the indexes max out again at an FOMC ?
It took a few weeks before many realised the market had ironically maxed out at the FOMC of mid September. It has to be asked, did the indexes just peak again, at this December FOMC ?
If the indexes have peaked, with a decline to the low 1200s in early 2013, then the VIX is set for a major explosion higher.
VIX 20' is the first key warning, but that's a clear 25% higher.
If we see a few daily closes of VIX'20, then we're probably headed for 24/26 quickly, and then the only issue is whether my general index target will be hit.
My best guess, if sp' low 1200s, then VIX mid 30s...minimum.
That would probably equate to gains of around 125/150% for both TVIX and UVXY, although the style in which the VIX climbs would really affect the % gains.
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As ever though, as with all leveraged derivative instruments, the statistical decay means holding for more than a few weeks, usually ends...badly.
