Net 2022 declines for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.09 (3.0%) to $28.66, which made for a net 2022 decline -$2.84 (9.0%).

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a fourth consecutive month. The December candle is black, and is suggestive of s/t bullish exhaustion. I would note the 10MA at $28.42, which was marginally settled above. Things only turn decisive with a monthly settlement above $30, which looks difficult considering the outlook for the broader market.

Unless you believe the main market has a key m/t floor from early Oct' 2020, any renewed downside will be a pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$0.28 (0.6%) to $47.20. The December candle is black, and leans s/t bearish. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $53s, which was settled below for a seventh consecutive month. Net yearly decline of -$12.37 (20.8%). Monthly momentum remains deeply negative, and I'd note the March 2020 spike low of $30.11.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net December gain of +$0.86 (5.3%) to $17.18. A net yearly decline of -$1.13 (6.2%). The December candle is rather spiky from around the monthly 10MA. The problem will likely be further downside in the main market.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

 

A net December decline of -$0.95 (10.2%) to $8.34. I would note the December settlement is below the 10MA. A net yearly decline of -$2.74 (24.7%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners, with a m/t bearish main market.  

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Of the three, yours truly favours GOLD.
As of end 2022... I hold no miner stocks/options.

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Miners digging upward

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November gain of +$4.89 (20.2%) to $29.05, the sector was helped by a weaker dollar and a positive equity market.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The miners managed a third consecutive net monthly gain. I would note the 10MA at $29.42, which was once again settled below, as the m/t trend remains bearish. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and remains on the low side. The weaker dollar and the positive equity market certainly helped.

Miner bulls need to see a decisive push >psy' $30 for confidence, with Gold >$1824 and Silver sustainably >$22.00
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net November gain of +$5.15 (12.2%) to $47.47. The monthly candle is bullish engulfing, and leans distinctly s/t bullish into year end. I would note the monthly 10MA at $55.60, which is a natural target. Monthly momentum is offering a provisional floor/turn.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold settled +$1.44 (9.6%) to $16.32. The monthly candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish. Momentum ticked upward, as we have a provisional cyclical floor/turn. Soft target is the 10MA in the $18s, and then psy' $20.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net November gain of $0.87 (10.3%) to $9.29. Momentum will be prone to turning positive in January. Soft target are the $11s, which would likely require a positive main equity market, and some degree of upside in silver.
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Of the three, I would favour Barrick Gold, although I'd note it has some distinct exposure (around 30%) to Copper, which itself remains m/t bearish.

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A trivial gain

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October gain of +$0.04 (0.2%) to $24.16, the sector was impacted by further downside in gold, and a m/t bearish equity market.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

Whilst the miners managed a second consecutive net monthly gain, the m/t trend remains bearish. I would note the 10MA at $29.54, which was once again settled below. Monthly momentum remains strongly negative.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net October gain of +$0.29 (0.7%) to $42.32.  I would note the monthly 10MA at $56.80, which was settled far below. Monthly momentum continues to spiral lower, and is deeply negative.

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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold settled -$0.47 (3.0%) to $15.03. Momentum remains moderately negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net October gain of $0.81 (10.6%) to $8.43.

*Further main market downside, or dollar strength aren't going to help any of the gold and silver miners.

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Miners still m/t bearish

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net September gain of +$0.32 (1.3%) to $24.12, the sector was impacted by further downside in gold, and a m/t bearish equity market.

GDX, monthly

 Summary

Whilst the miners managed a net monthly gain, the m/t trend remains bearish. I would note the 10MA at $30.33, which was once again settled below. Monthly momentum is increasingly negative, with zero sign of a short/mid term floor.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net September gain of +$1.22 (3.0%) to $42.03. Despite the net monthly gain, I'd note we're still putting in lower highs and lower lows. I would note the monthly 10MA at $58.60, which was settled far below. Monthly momentum continues to spiral lower, settling deeply negative.

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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold settled +$0.65 (4.4%) to $15.50. Momentum continues to weaken, and is moderately negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net September gain of $0.34 (4.7%) to $7.62. In the scheme of things, its a minor gain. 

*Further main market downside, or dollar strength aren't going to help any of the gold and silver miners.

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Miners still digging

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net August decline of -$2.47 (9.4%) to $23.80, the sector impacted by further downside in gold/silver, and a m/t bearish equity market.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The miners dug lower for a fifth consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $31.04, which was settled below, as the m/t trend remains bearish. Monthly momentum is increasingly negative, with zero sign of a floor/turn.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net August decline of -$3.92 (8.7%) to $41.36, the lowest close since Dec'2019. I would note the monthly 10MA at $60.48, which was settled far below. Monthly momentum continues to spiral lower, settling deeply negative.

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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold fell for a fifth consecutive month, settling -$0.68 (4.4%) to $14.85, the lowest close since May 2019. Momentum is moderately negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net August decline of $0.37 (4.9%) to $7.28. Silver $18s, and a m/t bearish main market, aren't helping.

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Month four down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July decline of -$1.11 (4.0%) to $26.27, the sector impacted by broadly weak gold/silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The miners saw a late July low of $24.38, if recovering to settle at $26.27. I would note the 10MA at $31.78, which was settled below, as the m/t trend remains bearish. Monthly momentum is increasingly negative, with zero sign of a floor/turn.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net July decline of -$14.39 (24.1%) to $45.28, the lowest close since March 2020! I would note the monthly 10MA at $61.61, which was settled far below. Monthly momentum spiraled lower, settling deeply negative.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold fell for a fourth consecutive month, settling -$1.95 (11.0%) to $15.74, the lowest close since July 2019. Momentum is moderately negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net July gain of +$0.48 (6.7%) to $7.66. Silver's late month recovery to the $20s especially helped, along with a positive main market.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM, if only as its (usually) more resilient than the sector. For more of the same...

 

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Miners dig lower for a third month

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June decline of -$4.35 (13.7%) to $27.38, the sector impacted by weak gold/silver, but also the broader equity market.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The miners saw an early June high of $33.52, but cooled back to settle severely lower at $27.38, the lowest since April 2020. I would note the 10MA at $32.05, which was settled below, as the m/t trend is bearish. Monthly momentum is increasingly negative, with zero sign of a floor/turn. --

Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net June decline of -$7.63 (11.3%) to $59.67. I would note the monthly 10MA at $62.37, which was settled below. Monthly momentum weakened, turning fractionally negative.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold fell for a third consecutive month, settling -$2.80 (13.7%) to $17.69. Momentum is increasingly negative.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net June decline of -$0.79 (9.9%) to $7.18. Silver printing the low $20s, and the m/t broken main market sure isn't helping.

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Miners still struggling

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May decline of -$3.26 (9.3%) to $31.73, the sector impacted by weak gold/silver, but also the broader equity market.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The miners saw an early May high of $36.17, but cooled back to settle powerfully lower at $31.73. I would note the 10MA at $32.51, which was settled below, as the m/t bullish trend has been broken. Monthly momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. Next target of the Aug'2020 high of $44.76 looks out of range until at least late summer.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

 

 

Newmont saw a net May decline of -$5.00 (6.9%) to $67.85. I would note the monthly 10MA at $61.52, which was settled above. Monthly momentum weakened, if remaining moderately positive.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold cooled back to settle -$1.61 (7.3%) to $20.49. Momentum has turned back to negative. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold  >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net May decline of -$2.32 (22.6%) to $7.97. April's bearish engulfing candle played out. Silver printing the $20s, and the m/t broken main market sure isn't helping.

Of the three, yours truly favours NEM, if only as its more resilient than the sector.

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Miners swing lower

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April decline of -$3.36 (8.8%) to $34.99, the sector impacted by weak gold/silver, but also the broader equity market.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The miners saw an early April high of $41.60, but cooled back to settle powerfully lower at $34.99. I would note the 10MA at $32.77, which was again settled above, as the m/t trend remains bullish. Monthly momentum has stalled just under the key zero threshold. Next target of the Aug'2020 high of $44.76 looks out of range in the near term, not least considering the main market.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly

Newmont broke a new historic high of $86.37, but swung powerfully lower, with a net April decline of -$6.60 (8.3%) to $72.85. I would note the monthly 10MA at $61.85, which was again settled above. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold printed $25.99, but cooled back to settle -$2.22 (9.0%) to $22.31. Momentum still turned positive. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold  >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic printed $14.59, but swung powerfully lower, seeing a net April decline of -$2.86 (21.7%) to $10.30. The April candle was bearish engulfing, and leans s/t bearish. The m/t broken main market sure isn't helping.

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Of the three, yours truly currently favours GOLD.  As at April'29,I hold GOLD and AG.

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Bullish follow through

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$3.97 (11.5%) to $38.35.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The miners saw bullish follow through, spiking to $40.26, if cooling back to settle powerfully higher at $38.35. The February break above m/t declining trend has been fully confirmed. I would note the 10MA at $32.61, which was again decisively settled above, as the m/t trend is bullish. Monthly momentum will turn positive at the April 1st open, with next target of the Aug'2020 high of $44.76.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

 

Newmont lead the sector upward, breaking a new historic high of $81.14, with a net March gain of +$13.72 (20.9%) to $79.45. I would note the monthly 10MA in the $60s, which was again settled above. Monthly momentum has turned positive.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

Barrick Gold climbed for a sixth consecutive month, settling +$1.96 (8.7%) to $24.53. Momentum is due to turn positive as of April 1st. Next target is psy' $30. A push above the Aug'2020 high of $30.47 will likely require Gold at least >$2100.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

First Majestic saw a net March gain of +$1.93 (17.1%) to $13.16. March settled above the 10MA. Things turn decisive >$15.00.

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Of the three, yours truly currently favours GOLD.

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