Net 2023 gains for the miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net December gain of +$0.20 (0.6%) to $31.01, which made for a net 2023 gain of +$2.81 (10.0%).

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of miners climbed for a third consecutive month. I would note the 10MA at $30.04, which was settled above. 

Mining bulls should be seeking to take out the 2023 high of $35.67, which will arguably require Gold sustainably >$2100, Silver >$25.00, and Copper >$4.00.  

As ever, any main market downside would be a problem to the mining stocks. Right now though, the broader US market is unquestionably m/t bullish.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net December gain of +$1.20 (3.0%) to $41.39. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.10, which was marginally settled above. Net yearly decline of -$3.97 (8.8%). Monthly momentum is ticking upward, and prone to turning positive within Jan/Feb'. Price could be expected to spike, with a break above key price threshold of the $44s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net December gain of +$0.50 (2.8%) to $18.09. A net yearly gain of +$1.32 (7.9%). The December candle leans at least s/t bullish, with momentum having turned positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

A net December gain of +$0.18 (3.0%) to $6.15. I would note the December settlement is back above the 10MA, with monthly momentum due to turn positive in January. A net yearly decline of -$2.16 (26.0%), as the silver miners are (as is usually the case) fairing worse than the gold miners.

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Of the three, yours truly favours NEM.
As of end 2023... I hold a stock position in NEM
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Highly recommended for those with an interest in gold and the related miners.

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The strong miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net November gain of +$3.31 (11.8%) to $31.32, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month low of $27.01, but swinging lower to settle at $31.32. I would note the 10MA at $30.14, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked back upward, and settled fractionally positive.

The central concern should be any renewed broad/sustained downside in the main market. However, I'd accept that doesn't look due any earlier than mid January.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net November gain of +$3.09 (8.3%) to $37.47. I would note the monthly 10MA at $41.16, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, if remaining negative. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

A net November gain of +$1.70 (10.7%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked upward, turning fractionally positive. Soft target is key price threshold of the $19.20s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net November gain of +$0.83 (16.0%) to $5.97. A twelfth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. The November candle is bullish engulfing, and leans s/t bullish.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.
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Miners higher with gold

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net October gain of +$1.10 (4.1%) to $28.01, helped by upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month low of $25.62, but swinging lower to settle at $28.01. I would note the 10MA at $30.21, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and remains marginally negative.

The central concern should be that any further downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net October gain of +$0.51 (1.4%) to $37.47, distinctly lagging the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $42.65, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back upward, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then its open air to the $25s... last printed in Oct'2018.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net October gain of +$1.43 (9.8%) to $15.98. Momentum subtly ticked back upward, if remaining fractionally negative. Support $12s, and then the 2018 $8s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net October gain of +$0.02 (0.4%) to $5.15. A eleventh consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15, as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market is broadly lower into 2024.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.
--

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Miners still digging

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net September decline of -$2.35 (8.0%) to $26.91, pressured by a weak equity market, and further downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

An intra month high of $30.13, but swinging lower to settle at $26.91. I would note the 10MA at $30.27, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and has turned negative.

The central concern should be that any downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net September decline of -$2.06 (5.3%) to $36.95, fairing somewhat better than the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $43.48, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back lower, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then its open air to the $25s... last printed in Oct'2018.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net September decline of -$1.66 (10.2%) to $14.55. Momentum is increasingly negative. Support $12s, and then the 2018 $8s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net August decline of -$1.00 (16.3%) to $5.13. A tenth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market is broadly weak into 2024.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market continues lower.

As of end September 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Miners digging back down

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net August decline of -$2.15 (6.8%) to $29.26, pressured by a shaky equity market, and downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month low of $27.27, but recovering to settle at $29.26. I would note the 10MA at $30.44, which was settled below. Monthly momentum ticked lower, and is prone to turning negative in September. 

The central concern should be that any downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net August decline of -$3.50 (8.1%) to $39.42, a distinctly weak performance relative to the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.80, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum subtly ticked back lower, and remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net August decline of -$0.97 (5.7%) to $16.21. Momentum has turned fractionally negative. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net August decline of +$0.54 (8.2%) to $6.13. A ninth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market breaks lower.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market breaks lower.

As of end August 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Choppy miners

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net July gain of +$1.30 (4.3%) to $31.41, helped by a positive main market, and upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

An intra month high of $32.92, but cooling back to settle at $31.41. I would note the 10MA at $29.89, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and remains marginally positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree, even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net July gain of +$0.26 (0.6%) to $42.92, a distinctly weak performance relative to the sector. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.96, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net July gain of +$0.36 (2.1%) to $17.29. Momentum is flat-lining, on the fractionally positive side. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net July gain of +$1.03 (18.2%) to $6.68. A eighth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality, assuming the main market breaks lower.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick. The bold will lean to the silver miners, but they would be especially vulnerable if the main market breaks lower.

As of end July 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Miners struggling

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net June decline of -$0.80 (2.6%) to $30.11, largely due to a second month of downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

An intra month high of $32.29, but swinging lower to $28.76, and settling at $30.11. I would note the 10MA at $29.12, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked lower, but remains positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net June gain of +$2.11 (5.2%) to $42.66. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.74, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative. Support $36s, with major upside resistance of the $45s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net June gain of +$0.05 (0.3%) to $16.93. May's bearish engulfing candle did play out, with a low of $15.85. Momentum is flat-lining, on the fractionally positive side. Support $12s, with upside resistance of the mid $19s.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net June decline of -$0.12 (2.1%) to $5.65. The performance is truly lousy, both to the sector and main market. A seventh consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end June 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Miners cooling back

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net May decline of -$2.67 (7.9%) to $30.91, largely due to downside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

A new multi-month high of $36.26, but swinging lower to $30.11, and settling at $30.91. I would note the 10MA at $28.45, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked lower, but remains positive.

The central concern should be that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net May decline of -$6.38 (13.6%) to $40.55. I would note the monthly 10MA at $44.43, which was settled beneath. Monthly momentum ticked back downward, and remains negative. Support $36s, and then the March 2020 $29s.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net May decline of -$2.05 (10.8%) to $16.88. I'd note the May candle is bearish engulfing, and suggestive of lower lows in June. Momentum ticked back lower, and will be prone to turning negative in June. Support $12s, and then the March 2020 low of $11.72.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net May decline of +$1.28 (18.2%) to $5.77. The performance is truly lousy, both to the sector and main market. A sixth consecutive settlement below the 10MA. I'd note the March 2020 low of $4.15... as appears an eventuality.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end May 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Miners digging upward

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net April gain of +$1.23 (3.8%) to $33.58, largely due to further upside in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

Summary

The collective of gold/silver miners climbed for the seventh month of eight. I would note the 10MA at $27.94, which was once again settled above. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive.

The only concern is that any renewed downside in the main market would be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net April decline of -$1.62 (3.3%) to $47.40. I would note the monthly 10MA at $45.16, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net April gain of +$0.47 (2.5%) to $19.04. I'd note the April candle is spiky on the upper side from key price threshold. Momentum has turned fractionally positive.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

A net April decline of +$0.15 (2.1%) to $7.06. The performance is lousy, relative to both the sector and main market. A fifth consecutive settlement below the 10MA.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end April 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.  

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Miners higher with Gold & Silver

The gold miner ETF of GDX saw a net March gain of +$4.84 (17.6%) to $32.35, largely due to a major upside reversal in gold and silver.

GDX, monthly

 

Summary

The collective of gold/silver miners climbed for the sixth month of seven. I would note the 10MA at $27.27, which was decisively settled above. Monthly momentum has turned positive.

Any renewed downside in the main market will be a downward pressure on the miners. It doesn't necessarily mean they will be net lower, but it does mean they would be restrained to a considerable degree... even if gold/silver are net higher.
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Three of the key miners...

Newmont (NEM), monthly 

Newmont saw a net March gain of +$5.82 (13.5%) to $49.02. I would note the monthly 10MA at $46.18, which was settled above. Monthly momentum ticked upward, but remains negative.
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Barrick Gold (GOLD), monthly

 

A net March gain of +$2.45 (15.2%) to $18.57. I'd especially note the upside reversal is from around the key 10MA. Momentum ticked upward, and is due to turn positive as of April 3rd.
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First Majestic Silver (AG), monthly

 

A net March gain of +$1.12 (18.3%) to $7.21. The gain is impressive, considering the drop to $5.53 on news of a mine being closed. A fourth consecutive settlement below the 10MA.

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Of the three, yours truly favours Newmont, as it has less exposure to copper than Barrick.
As of end March 2023... I hold no miner stocks/options.

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