Saturday 21 July 2012

CMG - finally..a little bit of reality sets in

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) felt the hammer of a disappointed market today, falling $86.88 - a huge 21.5% decline.


CMG, daily


Summary

Even though the earnings were actually still 'good', they missed the estimates of the analysts in market-land, and it was gapped lower by 20%.

Its not like CMG holders not had plenty of warning though. The stock - along with the main market, has been suffering some moderate declines since the Spring time highs.

On any basis CMG is still over-valued by around 60% or so. Of course, it could easily take a year for such further declines to pan out - much like the decline of NFLX last year.

Good company...but no company deserves to be rated with a PE of 45 (as of today's close).

Ohh, that reminds me...AMZN have earnings at the close of next Thursday. Hmmm...now that has been my ultimate target in these pages since day'1.

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*today was opex, and 'some' of those July puts were up 16,000% or so. A few amateurs who were shorting at the Thursday close had a dream come true today. Congrats to them all !