Wednesday 11 July 2012

TVIX, UVXY - another rough day

Even though the main indexes closed marginally red, the VIX still closed lower by around 3.5%...and that did not do the 2x VIX intruments any favours.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

With declines of around 6%, another lousy day for the volatility players - well, except those who were shorting such things!

If the main indexes do one further minor up cycle to around 1375/90, that will probably knock another 15/20% off both TVIX and UVXY.

As is always the case, such falls are always hard to make up for in the next up cycle.
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I still expect VIX to break into the 30s late July/early August, that will doubtless send TVIX/UVXY sharply higher. Perhaps they'll even double up.

Yet, TVIX was $8.00 just three weeks ago. Today, its half that. So even with a 'double', we might only be talking about a return to those levels of mid June.

A reverse split for both..can't be far away. Urghh !