Saturday 28 July 2012

FB - lousy results, on its way to Fair Value of $4

Facebook (FB) posted results that initially met expectations, but underlying the headline earnings/revenue numbers, there was renewed concern about just what sort of future this web based company has.

It remains entirely insane that just a few months ago the clown channel finance TV talk was all about 'ohh, FB is valued at $100 billion...maybe it can eventually be valued more than AAPL, and go to 1 trillion?'.

The Facebook hysteria/delusion broke from day'1 of the stock IPO, and FB might never see $38 ever again.


FB, daily


Summary

Very little needs to be added. FB remains over-valued on any basis.

First target remains somewhere in the low teens...perhaps $10/12..if the market can get a wave lower into the sp'1100s later this summer/autumn.

True 'fair value' remains no higher than $4...and I would only consider being a buyer around $1.25

The Financial historians of the late 21st century will be as bemused at the social media stock hysteria, as we are today of the Tulip mania in the 17'th century.

For the bears...FB is the gift that keeps on giving. There remains a long way down yet to go.