Thursday 26 July 2012

NFLX - going to zero?

With Netflix (NFLX) posting lousy results, the market is again displeased with what was once the ultimate momentum stock. The July 2011 peak of $300 now looks even more incredible in retrospect.


NFLX, daily


Summary

Another 5% lower today, after the Wednesday fall of 25%. As I noted late last summer (not in these pages though)..the ultimate target remains somewhere in the 40s. I suppose 20s are possible, hard to guess, but whether the floor is 40 or 20..its at least 80% lower than last summers peak.

It has been pretty amusing to see a number of people also consider the possibility that NFLX will cease to exist within a few years. The underlying business model has some severe issues, and there is some stiff competition from AMZN.

Whether NFLX eventually implodes to zero, seems unimportant right now. What is clear, critical levels have been broken..and the 40s - that some were touting last year...are now within reach.

It does indeed seem very possible that in the 2020s...people won't even remember the 'Netflix'.