Whilst the broader equity market saw very strong gains across the year, the Gold miners saw very severe declines. The Gold miner ETF of GDX settled @ $21.13, a 2013 decline of $24.83 (-54%). The bigger monthly cycle is not yet offering any clear sign of a turn.
2012 close: $45.96
2013 close: $21.13 net decline; $24.83 (-54%)
Along with the precious metals themselves, the miners have been in a world of hurt since the peak in late spring 2011. With Gold slipping from the $1900s to the upper $1100s, it has been no surprise at all to see the broad ETF of GDX having collapsed over half.
First, I should note that I see Gold eventually flooring at $1050/950 in 2014/15. If that is the case, it'd be highly suggestive that the miners still have some way to fall.
For GDX, that probably means a hit/test of the 2008 low in the $15s, before we see a decisive turn on the bigger monthly charts.
Best guess...GDX fails to hold the $20s....eventually hits the mid teens..before forming a key mulit-year floor.