TVIX, UVXY - weakness into the weekend

With the main indexes starting a small wave'2 bounce, the VIX significantly fell, and that caused the 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY to close the week on a downer, falling 12.4 and 14.6% respectively. VIX gained 23% this week, and looks set to explode later next week.


TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

Summary

First, a look at the volatility index

VIX weekly, 2yr

Despite the Friday decline of 15%, the VIX still managed very significant gains of 23% this week. Underlying MACD cycle is looking pretty bullish, and the only issue seems 'how high'..rather than 'will it fall'.

Best guess...VIX will be in the low 20s by the end of next week, and the mid 25s look viable by early May.
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As for TVIX and UVXY, today was again a reminder that these things are for short term trading only. Those VIX longs who exited Thursday afternoon should be very pleased with themselves. They will be able to re-enter new VIX long positions at a discount of 25-40% by next Tuesday.

If my near term outlook for the market is correct - with sp'1480s by early May, then VIX looks set to soar into the mid 20s..which would very likely see both TVIX and UVXY double from this weeks closing levels.