Wednesday 17 April 2013

GDX - just another day of horror

With the main equity market closing lower, and the precious metals failing to hold opening gains, the miners continue to suffer. The Gold miner ETF of GDX closed another 4.7% lower @ $27.45. There is still no sign of this extreme downtrend ending.


GDX, daily



GDX, monthly


Summary

The mining sector charts are simply incredible to see, whether daily, weekly, or the huge monthly. It remains an absolute horror story since the big turn in September 2011 - which was (ironically) when the main US indexes floored @ sp'1074.

Primary target zone for GDX remains 25, and the low 20s are viable as early as late May/June.
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One of my favourite companies remains Freeport Mcmoran Copper & Gold (FCX). yet we're now approaching a multi-year support level which..if broken, is a giant red flag for the main market.


FCX, daily



A break <27..bodes for a secondary deflationary collapse wave - in the style of 2008, with an FCX target of 15/10 in late 2013/early 2014.

FCX remains one of the best companies out there, but..Copper looks like it will break <$3 soon, and if that's the case, then the $2.00 level will become a very natural target.

For the deflationary doomer bears out there, watch for FCX <27, with Copper <$3.