Wednesday, 24 April 2013

TVIX, UVXY - set to surge

The indexes look exhausted after a three day (wave'2) bounce. If the VIX has floored in the mid 13s, the natural upside target is now a break into the low 20s. The 2x bullish VIX instruments of TVIX and UVXY look set to surge across the next 5-7 trading days.


TVIX, daily



UVXY, daily


Summary

First..an update on the VIX...


The VIX itself only closed fractionally higher today, but its broken outside of the down channel, and the low 15s look viable as early as Thursday morning. The ultimate issue is whether VIX can break above the key 20 threshold, and considering last weeks action, I think that issue is now largely clarified.

As for TVIX and UVXY, a VIX surge into the 20s would probably see very significant gains of anywhere from 50-100%. The range is very wide, since it really depends on the style of decline that the indexes might see. If its a choppy slower decline to sp'1490/80, then VIX will likely see less 'kick', and the inevitable index micro-bounces will similarly likely mitigate gains.
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As ever, all leveraged instruments are for short term trading only. Last weeks action was another reminder of what happens when you hold overnight after a very significant VIX spike.