GDX - a month of cooling

With gold and silver seeing sig' net monthly declines, the miners followed. The ETF of GDX ended the week on a negative note, settling -0.9% at $22.95, which made for a rather powerful net monthly decline of -7.1%. Near term outlook offers renewed upside. First soft target is the Feb' high of $25.71.


GDX monthly

GDX daily

Summary

Suffice to add, technically, it was the worse monthly decline for the miners since Nov'2016, but broadly, the miners have been churning sideways for the year.

The key threshold remains the Feb' high of $25.71. Any price action >26.00 will be decisive enough to offer a straight run to the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

MU - continuing to power upward

Whilst the main market saw a day of mostly minor chop, there was continued significant strength in Micron Technology (MU), which settled +2.3% at $37.96. Near term threatens some cooling, but mid term is hyper bullish, with next target of the 45/50 zone.


MU daily

MU monthly

Summary

Little to add from yesterday.

The sustained break >$37 is VERY bullish, and bodes for 45/50. Considering the current price action, $45 is now a valid target by year end. The bigger $50 threshold looks more viable in spring 2018.

Long term... chatter of $100 can begin. 

MU - soaring on superb earnings

Earnings for Micron Technology (MU) were unquestionably superb, and the stock settled the day +8.5% at $37.08 Near term outlook threatens some cooling, but more broadly, the break into the $37s offer grander upside to the 45/50 zone by late spring 2018.


MU daily

MU monthly

Summary

see: http://investors.micron.com/

Most recent earnings: http://investors.micron.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041722
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I have been touting the 'bizarrely under-valued' Micron across this year, not least as earnings just keep getting better and better each quarter. With headline (adjusted) EPS of $2.02, and revenue of $6.14bn, the trend is really very good indeed.
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Jon and Pete Najarian highlighting Sept' $33 calls

Indeed, those who were long via option calls, or the stock, are very pleased, as the stock has broadly climbed from the Aug'11th low of $26.85 to today's intra high of $37.15.
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Is Micron the next Nvidia, which has climbed from $24 in Jan'2016 to $191 this month? Probably not, but its kinda hard to imagine the stock not pushing to at least $50 by next spring.. especially if sp'3000.

I'm certainly not the only one who is seeking MU to 45/50

see:  https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mu  , and scroll down to see some of the institutional targets.

Micron is a reminder that not every stock in the US market is crazy priced like AMZN or NFLX. If you believe MU has grander upside into 2018, then it should give you clarity on the trend for the broader market.

Yours truly is HYPER bullish Micron Technology for the mid term.

AMD - a fourth day lower

Like many tech stocks, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) opened sig' higher, but settled lower for a fourth consecutive day, -1.3% at $12.45. The daily close under the 200dma is very bearish, and threatens October downside to the key psy' level of $10.00. Mid term bullish to $20.00.


AMD daily

AMD monthly

Summary

To be absolutely clear.... I'm short term bearish, but mid term bullish.
 
I will only add, I can think of many better tech companies though, as AMD is yet to prove itself with decent earnings.

I'd refer anyone to go do some research in MU, NVDA, INTC, QCOM, AAPL, CSCO, ORCL, and ADBE.

APRN - a bizarre bullish call

Whilst the main market saw moderate weakness across much of the day, there was sig' strength in Blue Apron (APRN), settling +6.7% at $5.54, as Guggenheim Securities issued a buy target of $9.00. Frankly, its arguably the most bizarre and stupid trading call of the year so far.


APRN, daily

Guggenheim

Summary

It was perhaps appropriate that as the North Korean foreign minister argued that Trump's weekend comments were an effective declaration of war, that meanwhile in market land, someone was touting the mid term potential for Blue Apron.

I could drone on about just how stupid this trading call appears to be... but suffice to add....

-Blue Apron is a cash hungry monster... operating at a consistent loss.
-Faces massive competition, not least from the corp' beast of AMZN-Whole Foods
-If it can't turn a profit whilst the economy is growing, what happens when a recession hits?
-Employee mood within the company is DIRE, not least after recent firings.

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To be clear, the brand is pretty strong, and I'd agree there is potential within some of the larger metropolitan areas to expand. Yet... on balance, this company isn't making any money within what is a naturally low margin sector of food delivery.

Bearish to the 4s.. if not the 3s.

Ohh, and no, I'm not currently short APRN, but it does make for some ongoing 'sideshow entertainment'.
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I just hope CNBC drag this DiFresco guy on set if the stock is trading in the $3s before year end.

GDX - falling with the metals

With the precious metals of gold and silver significantly lower for a second consecutive week, the related miners naturally followed. The ETF of GDX settled the week on a positive note, +1.1% at $23.47, but that still resulted in a net weekly decline of -2.7%. Near term outlook is bearish.


GDX weekly

GDX monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, its not surprising to see GDX closely track the related metals.

For now, gold is comfortably holding the mid term upward trend from Dec'2015. Silver is still lagging, but to counter that, copper is mid term bullish, having seen a powerfully bullish August close >$3.00. On balance, Gold and Silver should push upward... with GDX to follow.

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Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22, Copper $3.00 (achieved).

GDX: Feb' high $25.71, then the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

X - settling under the 50dma

Whilst the main market saw a day of weak chop, there was very significant weakness in US Steel (X), which saw an intra low of $24.32, and settling -4.4% at $24.66. The daily close was 10 cents under the 50dma, the most bearish close since June 27th.


X daily

X monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, short term bearish.... mid/long term bullish.

If you believe the main market will see a 4-5% correction, then considering we have already seen a daily close under the 50dma, its hard to see rising trend - from mid May, not also breaking. That threshold is currently around $24.00. In theory.... the most bearish case are the sp'2400/2390s... with X around $21.00.

US Steel is unquestionably a good company, and unless you think the US/world economy is set to see a recession within 3-6 months, it is a stock for the mid/long term.

AAPL - still leaning weak

Apple (AAPL) broke a new historic high of $164.94 on Sept'1st. Since that time, the stock has been declining (if choppily), and today settling lower for the 9th day of 12, -1.7% at $155.99. Near term outlook threatens the 150/49 zone. A hit of the 200dma in the low $140s is very viable (if briefly) in October.


AAPL daily

AAPL monthly

Summary

Suffice to add... short term bearish, but unless a few of the US (and other world) indexes see bearish monthly closes (whether Sept' or Oct'), the mid/long term outlook has to be bullish. Note the monthly 10MA, currently in the $141s, and still rising. Unless that is broken and closed under, the equity bears have nothing to tout.

FCX - a third day higher

Whilst the main market settled fractionally mixed, there was further significant strength in Freeport McMoRan, which settled higher for a third consecutive day, +2.5% to $14.48. Near term outlook offers threat of the $13.30/20s into early October. More broadly, first soft target are the $17s, and then the $24s.


FCX daily

FCX monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, FCX is near term choppy, leaning on the weaker side, as copper has cooled from a recent high of $3.18. Considering the August copper settlement above the very important $3.00 threshold, I have to be mid term bullish the copper miners of FCX, TECK, and SCCO.
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Mainstream attention...

Pete Najarian of https://investitute.com highlighting FCX.

I should add, from a pure 'technical perspective', Southern Copper (SCCO) is the strongest, Teck Resources (TECK) is second, with FCX the third strongest.
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Copper, weekly

The bullish view for the miners is only dropped if copper breaks under mid term rising trend, currently at $2.70, and which will be around $2.90 by year end.

MU - approaching multi-decade resistance

Whilst the main market settled moderately mixed, there was significant strength in the semi-con' stocks. Micron Technology (MU) settled +2.2% at $35.43. The $36s are a magnet in the near term, but will likely hold as resistance. The $37s seem far more probable after a main market correction of 4-5%.


MU daily

MU monthly

Summary

Micron is fast approaching the Dec'2014 high of $36.59.

My best guess is that the $36s will HOLD in the near term, with MU likely to be held back into October, but that will surely need a main market correction of 4-5%. Regardless, technically, AND fundamentally, Micron looks very strong indeed.

Many others also recognise that with a forward PE in the 5s, there is VERY considerable mid/long term upside potential for Micron.

Pete Najarian of https://investitute.com noted to me that Evercore today issued a new target of $50, which is interestingly in sync with my own mid term target range.

*upon checking, I see that FBN securities issued a target Sept'11th of $45, and Goldman Sachs have an outright 'BUY' as of Sept'13th.

see: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=mu
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I am bullish Micron Technology into 2018. That view is only dropped if at least 2-3 of the main indexes see a bearish monthly close for September or October, which currently seems very unlikely.

GDX - a cooling week

With Gold and Silver significantly lower for the week, the miners followed. The gold miner ETF of GDX settled nert lower for the week by -4.4% at $24.13. Near term outlook offers chop ahead of the Sept'20th FOMC. From there, high threat of renewed upside to finally break the Feb' high of $25.71. If 26s, then a straight run to the 31s.


GDX weekly

GDX monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, 3 weeks up... and 1 week down. Broadly, the miners are very close to a key break above the Feb' high of $25.71. Any price in the $26s will be decisive enough to offer another $5 to the 31s by spring 2018. Things would turn hyper bullish if $32s.... with a subsequent target of $50.

Key related thresholds: Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, Copper $3.00 (achieved in August).

DIS - baby bear flag

Whilst the main market saw a day of micro chop, there was notable weakness in Disney (DIS), which settled -0.9% at $97.90. Short term price structure is a baby bear flag under broken support. The psy' level of $90 is a valid target for October.


DIS daily

DIS monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, the recent break of support of $100/99 is a key issue. From a Sept' 7th low of $96.20, the stock has bounced to $98.95. Today's wave lower has taken the stock to the edge of provisionally confirming what is a bear flag.

Seen on the larger monthly chart, Disney is currently net lower for the fourth month of the past five. On any basis, the mid term trend from April is bearish. Further weakness to the next soft psy' level of $90 - where the lower monthly bollinger is near, is a valid target for October.

To be clear, I like the company, not least as it owns the two money making franchises of Marvel and Star Wars. Technically though, its a broken stock, and weakness into October is highly probable, not least if the main market sees a minor correction of 4-5%.

SDRL - a farewell to Seadrill

The oil/gas exploration driller of Seadrill (SDRL) has filed for bankruptcy. The stock has been in a long term decline from the Sept'2013 high of $43.42, today settling at $0.28. The corporate/trading name will perhaps continue to be used, but regardless, existing stockholders have been effectively zeroed out.


SDRL, monthly, (linear scale)

SDRL, daily, (linear scale)

Summary

see: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/seadrill-files-bankruptcy-following-prolonged-depression-daily-lease-rates

Seadrill secures new cash: https://www.thestreet.com/story/14303350/1/seadrill-secures-new-cash-as-part-of-chapter-11-filing.html
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First, regarding today's net daily gain of 5 cents - which amounts to 20.2%, to $0.28, its a spurious gain, and to be treated as meaningless... although I realise some of the 'penny share' players would argue otherwise.
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Seadrill used to be a stock I'd closely follow. I think I last traded it (long side), back in spring 2014, and then simply left the entire energy sector alone.

Today's news that it has effectively imploded is not exactly surprising. The sector remains saturated, and its notable that there was never any 'industry capitulation' in early 2016 - as had seemed due. Instead, its become a drawn out affair. Seadrill won't likely be the last of the familiar names to disappear.

Existing shareholders for Transocean (RIG), and Diamond Offshore (DO) should at least do another review of their balance sheets. I might try to do a post on both stocks sometime soon.

In any case.... farewell to SDRL.

AAPL - post event cooling

Apple (AAPL) saw a day of swings, seeing an intra high of $163.96, an afternoon low of $158.77, and settling -0.4% at $160.86. Near term offers a break of rising trend - currently in the $158s, which will open up the 154/50 zone. Broadly, mid term bullish, as many in the mainstream are seeking the $180/90s before year end.


AAPL daily

AAPL monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, with the 'event' out of the way, we're already seeing some initial cooling, which some could justifiably call a 'sell the news' event.

Short term, AAPL looks vulnerable, not least as the main market is due a 4-5% correction into October. More broadly though, that would do little to dent the mid/long term bullish trend.

Technically, AAPL would only be bearish with some sustained action under the key 10MA, currently in the $142s. Frankly, that looks a stretch, even if sp'2380s in early October. On the giant monthly cycle, even if AAPL were to max out around current levels, a bearish MACD (green bar histogram) cross would not be seen until least early spring 2018.

So.. short term bearish.... mid/long term bullish.

MU - mid term super strong

With the main market starting the week on a bullish note, Micron Technology (MU) followed, settling +3.0% at $33.44. The daily close >33, offers a fast run to the $36s, although this is complicated by the fact the main market is due a 5% retrace into early October. In any case, the mid term trend is super strong.


MU daily

MU monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, today's close >$33 is a very bullish sign. Even if the main market cools by around 5% into October, MU should be able to hold above the $30 threshold, where the 50dma is lurking.
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I'm not the only one who is bullish MU...

FBN securities 'outperform' target of $45 is interestingly in sync with my own hyper bullish target of 45/50 in 2018. That assumes the broader market does not see any bearish monthly closes for Sept or October.

Despite having already climbed from the $16s in Oct'2016, the current forward PE is a mere 5. On any fair basis, its not a stretch to seeing the stock at least climb to 45/50 in 2018. Bullish.

GDX - a third week higher

With the precious metals of gold and silver climbing for a third consecutive week, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day -1.0% to $25.24, but that still resulted in a net weekly gain of 1.9%. Near/mid term outlook is bullish, as the 2016 highs look set to be tested by spring 2018.


GDX daily

GDX weekly

Summary

Suffice to add... the metals continue to broadly climb from their July lows. Gold is already close to breaking the summer 2016 high ($1377.50), whilst Silver is somewhat laggy in the low $18s. An indirect bullish signal remains copper, which saw a powerful August settlement >$3.00.

The mining ETF of GDX is close to the Feb' high of $25.71. From there.. the summer 2016 high of $31.70.

Key thresholds: Gold $1400, Silver $22s, Copper $3.00 (achieved!), and GDX $32s.

BAC - bearish with no rate hike

With the Fed set to refrain from a rate hike at the Sept'20th FOMC, the financials are under increasing downward pressure. Bank of America (BAC) settled -1.9% at $22.97. The settlement under the 200dma opens the door to a test of core support around the $22.00 threshold.


BAC daily

BAC monthly

Summary

The financials struggled from the collapse wave lows of 2009 to late 2015. Indeed, it was only in Nov'2015 when Bank of America finally cleared massive resistance of $18.00. From there, things spiralled upward, as it seemed the fed was finally going to at least attempt a series of interest rate hikes.

So far this year, we've seen 25bps hikes in March and June. Yet the fed are now dithering, and there is seemingly ZERO chance of a Sept' hike. The mainstream are also now seriously doubtful that a Dec' hike will happen.

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Technically, today's loss of the 200dma in BAC opens another test of core support around $22.00. Any sustained action <22 threatens much lower levels. The natural target would be the original breakout level of $18. If correct, there are rather bearish implications for the broader equity market into 2018.

ABX - miners cooling from resistance

With the precious metals in cooling mode, the related miners followed. Barrick Gold (ABX) settled -2.0% at $17.85. Near term outlook is very mixed, as despite being cyclically high, if Gold turns back upward (not least on any geo-political upset), then the miners will surge upward.


ABX daily

ABX monthly

Summary

Suffice to add, Barrick remains my favourite miner. Technically, its still yet to clear the Feb' high of $20.67, but considering Gold and copper, that looks increasingly probable this coming autumn.

Seen on a giant monthly cycle, price structure from summer 2016 could be argued is a giant bull flag. That would be provisionally confirmed on any break above the Feb'2017 high, and fully confirmed >23.29.

Key thresholds for the bullish miners: Gold $1400s, Silver $22s, and copper >$3.00. Its notable that copper is leading the way, and managed a key August settlement of $3.10.

GDX - a powerful net weekly gain

With Gold and Silver climbing for a second week, the related miners followed. The ETF of GDX settled the day +0.2% at $24.78, which made for a net weekly gain of 5.8%. Near term outlook is bullish, with the Feb' high of $25.71 just another 4% higher.


GDX daily

GDX weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, with Gold >$1300, and Copper managing the first monthly close >$3.00 since August 2014, the mining stocks are managing to battle upward from July lows.

The weekly close is especially bullish, settling near the high of the week. Clearly, the Feb' high is within range in the near term.

Things would turn hyper bullish for the miners, with Gold >$1400 and Silver >$22. The latter is notably lagging, relative to Gold and Copper.