Monday, 25 September 2017

APRN - a bizarre bullish call

Whilst the main market saw moderate weakness across much of the day, there was sig' strength in Blue Apron (APRN), settling +6.7% at $5.54, as Guggenheim Securities issued a buy target of $9.00. Frankly, its arguably the most bizarre and stupid trading call of the year so far.


APRN, daily



Guggenheim



Summary

It was perhaps appropriate that as the North Korean foreign minister argued that Trump's weekend comments were an effective declaration of war, that meanwhile in market land, someone was touting the mid term potential for Blue Apron.

I could drone on about just how stupid this trading call appears to be... but suffice to add....

-Blue Apron is a cash hungry monster... operating at a consistent loss.
-Faces massive competition, not least from the corp' beast of AMZN-Whole Foods
-If it can't turn a profit whilst the economy is growing, what happens when a recession hits?
-Employee mood within the company is DIRE, not least after recent firings.

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To be clear, the brand is pretty strong, and I'd agree there is potential within some of the larger metropolitan areas to expand. Yet... on balance, this company isn't making any money within what is a naturally low margin sector of food delivery.

Bearish to the 4s.. if not the 3s.

Ohh, and no, I'm not currently short APRN, but it does make for some ongoing 'sideshow entertainment'.
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I just hope CNBC drag this DiFresco guy on set if the stock is trading in the $3s before year end.