Thursday, 7 September 2017

BAC - bearish with no rate hike

With the Fed set to refrain from a rate hike at the Sept'20th FOMC, the financials are under increasing downward pressure. Bank of America (BAC) settled -1.9% at $22.97. The settlement under the 200dma opens the door to a test of core support around the $22.00 threshold.

BAC daily

BAC monthly


The financials struggled from the collapse wave lows of 2009 to late 2015. Indeed, it was only in Nov'2015 when Bank of America finally cleared massive resistance of $18.00. From there, things spiralled upward, as it seemed the fed was finally going to at least attempt a series of interest rate hikes.

So far this year, we've seen 25bps hikes in March and June. Yet the fed are now dithering, and there is seemingly ZERO chance of a Sept' hike. The mainstream are also now seriously doubtful that a Dec' hike will happen.

Technically, today's loss of the 200dma in BAC opens another test of core support around $22.00. Any sustained action <22 threatens much lower levels. The natural target would be the original breakout level of $18. If correct, there are rather bearish implications for the broader equity market into 2018.