Friday, 30 November 2012

TVIX, UVXY - near term floor?

Whilst the indexes closed Friday broadly flat, the VIX managed to hold onto gains of around 5%. Both the 2x leveraged bullish VIX instruments TVIX and UVXY responded, with gains of 1.0 and 3.5% respectively.

TVIX, daily

UVXY, daily

VIX, weekly


Is this it? The much awaited 'major wave higher' in the VIX, breaking 20? With a corresponding fall in the indexes, taking out the recent low of sp'1343 ?

If so, then both TVIX and UVXY will see massive increases in the week ahead.

However, as is ALWAYS the case, VIX gains are usually brief, and all gains in TVIX/UVXY are eventually outweighed by the statistical decay inherent in all such leveraged derivatives.

Certainly, TVIX and UVXY are to be watched next week, especially in terms of trading volume. It could be an indication that some of the bigger trading houses are protecting against perceived downside risks.